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The rules

About

Who runs this

Bet With Bagan is run by Sean Bagan, a bettor in Michigan.

I started this because I got tired of cappers who post their wins, quietly delete their losses and sell a record nobody can check. If you have followed picks online for more than a month, you have seen it. The screenshots only go one way.

So this site works the other way. Every pick is posted in public before the game starts, with a timestamp I cannot change. Every result stays up. You can check all of it.

Picks are free through the end of the 2026 NFL regular season. The public record starts with Thursday Night Football on October 1, 2026.

The rules

  1. Posted before kickoff with a server timestamp. Every pick is logged by the server when it goes up. No backdating, no edits after the fact.
  2. Best price shopped and shown. Each leg is checked at DraftKings, FanDuel and theScore Bet, and the best number is marked.
  3. Graded against the close automatically. Results and closing line value are calculated by the system, not by me.
  4. Losses posted like wins. Same size, same place, same format.
  5. Nothing deleted. Voids stay visible. If a ticket is voided, it stays on the page, marked void, and it is left out of the totals.
  6. Entertainment never counts. Long parlays, lottery tickets and fun MLB plays are posted in their own bucket. They never touch the record, win or lose.
  7. Units, not dollars. Every result is reported in units so the record means the same thing for every bankroll.

What to expect

Honest numbers. The best public handicappers hit roughly 54% to 57% against the spread over full seasons. Break-even at -110 is 52.38%. That gap is the whole game. Anyone selling you 70% is not showing you everything.

The headline stat here is closing line value: whether the price Sean took beat the sharpest number in the market at kickoff. CLV tells you more about the quality of a bet than a short-term win rate does, because it gives a signal on every pick, win or lose. The CLV lesson explains how it is measured.

Variance is real. Good bettors lose 10 of 15 sometimes. There will be bad weeks posted right next to the good ones. Judge the record over a season, not a Sunday.

What this is not

You must be 21 or older to use this site. If betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit our responsible gambling page.